Research | The Vorsprung Project

Doing less of more for longer

Applying models:
All models are an approximation of the real world.
No model is ever complete or completely accurate.
This includes:

the models that we hold in our own minds of how the world works
the collective models that we create together through conversation
all the computer models we ever use.

Use your model to make the best guess you can but always seek real world evidence by prototyping your solution to find out more.

Using population-wide data:
Population wide data is also a model, so it only approximates the real world.
Population wide probabilities tell you what the big picture might look like.
Population data can’t tell you what is impossible at a local level.
It can’t tell you what to do in a specific place.
It can tell you some of the questions to ask about that place.
It can only tell you about what might be likely or unlikely. Local factors will have an impact on these probabilities. The unlikely will still occur. So, stay alert to all possibilities.
Population wide data cannot make predictions: it will not tell you what your experience will actually be.

Our relationship with Knowledge:
What hasn’t changed is, that, we are still interested in evidence.

But, three things have changed:

1. The types of evidence we are interested in have broadened. E.g. It is no longer okay to over-rely on a particular source of evidence. Lived human experience is considered more important than it used to be. Although random control trials are useful in many instances, they are also limited in the type of things they can test, sometimes creating false dichotomies.

2. The way we interpret the data has changed. E.g. in the past we might have said, ‘oh, that’s just a placebo effect’. But, the effect of placebo can be quite large, so we might investigate using it to good effect (instead of writing-it-off because we can’t explain it).

3. Our understanding of what it means, when someone asks for more evidence has changed. When someone asks for more evidence, they might be asking out of genuine interest and / or for emotional reassurance. Sometimes people (particularly, with more power) demand extra proof to avoid their own difficult emotions or to delay making decisions. Previously, we would have accepted such a request. Now, we would want to help with the underlying emotional problem as well as generate useful (probably new) data on the topic.

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